H-1B is Changing: The End of the Lottery
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What’s Going On With H-1B?
For years, the H-1B was like a huge raffle: tons of people (think 700,000+) put their names in, and a computer picked 85,000 lucky winners. Didn’t matter if you were a new graduate with a $65k offer or an industry veteran landing six-figures, everyone got the same lottery odds.
Now, the US government is rolling out a change: no more pure luck. Instead, they want to pick based on who’s getting paid the most for their job and location. The highest wages go first, and if there’s a tie, a mini-lottery breaks it.
How Does This Salary System Work in Real Life?
● Wage Levels = Your Priority
The Department of Labor sets four pay “levels” for every job in every city. Level 1 is entry-level, Level 4 is the most experienced “pro.”
Example: Software Engineer
In San Francisco (2025):
■ Level 1: ~$135k (entry-level)
■ Level 4: ~$213k (very senior or super-skilled)
In Kansas City?
■ Level 1: ~$97k
■ Level 4: ~$160k
When Companies Apply:
If they’re offering you a Level 4 or 3 wage, you get picked first.
If the cap isn’t filled at Level 3, they pull from Level 2, then Level 1, until all slots are gone.
If more people are at the same level as spots left, those folks get a small lottery.
Bottom Line: The more companies pay, the higher your odds!
Why Are They Doing This?
● To make H-1Bs go to roles “truly in demand” and prevent undercutting American salaries.
● The goal: reward experienced, high-earning talent and keep “cheap labor” abuse out of the system.
● For top tech firms (think Google, Meta, Apple), this is a huge win; they can recruit globally, bump base salaries, and get the best people YEARS faster.
How does it affect immigrants?
For International Students (especially new grads):
Tough news: If your first offer is a “normal” starter salary ($80–$110k in most cities), your H-1B odds drop to near zero unless your firm pays way more or you land a spot in level 3/4 (rare for new grads).
Many worry this will make American grad schools less attractive. Why pay for a US degree if the visa path after is so steep?
For Companies:
Big players with cash (FAANG, Fortune 500) just crank up the base salary and grab their H-1Bs.
Small companies, non-profits, and startups will really struggle. Most can’t afford to match the high wages of big cities for entry-level talent.
For American Tech Workers:
Some love it: “No more $60k tech jobs taking my slot. Higher H-1B salaries help everyone.”
Others are skeptical: “Will this just push all the best talent to California and New York?”
City vs. City, What Does It Take to “Compete”?
Your odds in San Francisco might mean needing $ 140,000+ for a junior developer to even hope for a shot.
In Kansas, the bar is lower (~$100,000 for entry-level), but most jobs don’t pay more than the local average, so now, only jobs way above the norm get picked.
The system compares you to other applicants in your city, not just anywhere.
“If bonuses and stock don’t count as pay, big companies will just put everything into base salary. For mid/late-career folks, it rules, but tough luck for new grads and people at smaller companies.”, FAANG hiring manager on Reddi.t
When Could This Start?
The rule is not yet law; it will be in review by mid-2025 and is likely to be implemented by the 2026 lottery season.
If it passes, job-seekers and employers will have to lock down salaries and titles BEFORE they even register for H-1B.
No more last-minute negotiations, the salary is locked early.
What Are People Actually Saying About It?
There are tons of debates. Some see this as fair and meritorious; others see it as killing the American Dream for international students who start at the bottom.
Many predict a rise in “negotiation culture”; if you want an H-1B, you’ll have to push for a bigger base salary, and earlier in the job search than ever.
Big Tech Employees: “This finally lets us bring in the world’s best engineers, not just the luckiest.”
International Students: “I’m rethinking my MS, it’s becoming too risky if I can’t land an offer at Level 3 or higher.”
Start-Ups: “We’ll have to get creative, maybe team up to sponsor together, or just risk losing talent to the highest bidders.”
How Could This Change Mindset and the Student Experience?
Students may see fewer international applications for standard or smaller programs, with more elite and ambitious individuals aiming only for the top.
Software engineers: Now need to research salary data, learn to negotiate, and maybe say “no” to lower starting offers.
Mindset: “If I want a shot, I need to play at the top; average is not enough.”
Final Thought:
This H-1B change shifts the game from a lottery to a pay-to-play system, great news for those with experience, skills, or top job offers, but much tougher for students and startups. Anyone considering a US career needs to understand how wages and location interact, ask about “wage level” in job offers, and recognize that this isn’t just about talent, it’s about what your company will pay for it.
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